One of the lessons of the current recession is that we are, more often than not, just plain clueless when it comes to forecasting our economic future. And it’s not for a lack of trying. We give the smartest people in America reams of market data, we create marvelously complex forecasting models, and we end up with vastly conflicting, generally misguided points of view.
More than that, we completely miss the Big Events--the current recession being a good example.
It is the American condition, however, that being bad at something doesn’t stop us from doing it, and doing it enthusiastically.
More than that, we completely miss the Big Events--the current recession being a good example.
It is the American condition, however, that being bad at something doesn’t stop us from doing it, and doing it enthusiastically.
This is what I was thinking as I read Ithiel de Sola Pool’s 1977 The Social Impact of the Phone. In particular, one chapter examines all of the forecasts made about the telephone from 1876 to WWII. It's a good reminder that we—all of us, worldwide and over time--are really, truly are bad at this forecasting stuff.